UPDATED. Fifa election: the count so far

Day -842. WorldCup2018.

The big Fifa election is a few days away. In this post-Blatter era it is an open race, primarily between Gianni Infantino and Sheikh Salman al-Khalifa. As much as it looks like a straight race between the two, there is a third wheel and a big one. Prince Ali will in all probability win enough first round votes to prevent either of the two favourites from winning the required majority. The big question will be where Prince Ali's votes go in the second round. There are 209 member associations, but 207 may vote as Kuwait and Indonesia's suspension is going to be reviewed on the morning of the vote. With 207 votes, the magic number for a first round win is 138. In the second round the candidate with the most votes wins.

The easy way to look at the way the vote is to be divided is:

• Africa (CAF, 54 votes) and Asia (AFC, 46 votes) will vote for Sheikh Salman
• Europe (UEFA, 53 votes) will vote for Infantino
• South America (CONMEBOL, 10 votes) have endorsed Infantino
• North, Central America and the Caribbean (CONCACAF) and Oceania (11 votes) are undecided

But that comprehensive look needs some digging. The New York Times reported that by their estimates Sheikh Salman will receive 80-90 first round votes, Infantino 70-80 and Prince Ali, 30. With this scenario the decider will be where Prince Ali's votes go in the second round.

I scoured all the reports I could find about confirmed votes, official endorsements and possible votes and have come up with my own estimate, or a near confirmation of the New York Times' numbers. Please bear with me. And it comes with a warning. Be not surprised if some of these countries do not vote for whom they said they would. Last minute politics behind the scenes will go on right up until the last minute.

Infantino has the backing of most of Europe. The following countries have said they will vote for him:
Austria, Switzerland, Hungary, Ireland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Poland, Sweden, Slovakia, Denmark, Spain, Portugal, Holland, Ukraine, England, Italy, Greece, Serbia, Croatia, Belarus, Bosnia, Slovenia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Armenia, Albania, Germany, Bulgaria, Russia, Cyprus, Romania, Turkey, Iceland, Czech Republic, France, Luxembourg, Moldova, Faroe Islands, Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Iceland, San Marino.  That leaves 10 European countries that either haven't decided, haven't made it public or are not voting for Infantino.

The one 'no' for Infantino we know for sure is Malta, who's FA president confirmed to me will be voting for Prince Ali. This puts Malta in a very interesting position with their European counterparts. Is their loyalty to the Prince so strong that they will happily be a minority amongst their fellow UEFA associations? Or is it more than that?
http://dinoworldcup.blogspot.ca/2016/02/malta-jordan-and-prince-aliagain.html
http://dinoworldcup.blogspot.ca/2016/02/exclusive-from-maltese-fa.html

CONCACAF announced that they will not endorse one candidate until Thursday. However, Infantino maintains he has the backing of the majority of the region, and some countries have already declared support for him, namely, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Guatemala, Belize, Nicaragua, Barbados, Suriname and Grenada. The U.S. have not made their decision public, but as the New York Times reports it is definitely either Infantino or Prince Ali, and it is inconceivable that their second round vote would go to Sheikh Salman. Canada have been very quiet. I have asked Soccer Canada whether they have decided or if they will go along with the CONCACAF endorsement. I await a reply. (UPDATE: Soccer Canada replied: "we cannot speak to how our President will vote in the upcoming election").

CONMEBOL have endorsed Infantino, a guaranteed 10 votes if all the countries go along with the endorsement. Oceania have not endorsed one candidate and there is little evidence of who they may vote for. One African country, South Sudan, says they are voting for Infantino.

In total that's 64 estimated votes for Infantino.

Sheikh Salman believes he has the backing of Asia and Africa, which would give him 99 votes (take out South Sudan). However, the President of the Liberian FA, Musa Bility, has said that he knows of 26 African countries that won't vote for the Sheikh. Also, Liberia will vote for Prince Ali, as will Egypt. Also, in Asia, Iraq and Jordan have declared support for Prince Ali. And there are reports that the 13 countries of the West Asian Football Federation will vote for Prince Ali, as he helped set up the federation.

Along with Malta's vote that could be at least 18 votes for Prince Ali. More importantly that brings Sheikh Salman's total down to 81. But there is a lot of uncertainty here. More African countries may vote for Prince Ali. Australia (in Asia for Fifa) is said to be uncomfortable voting for the Sheikh but also they don't want to upset their fellow Asian countries. To add to the intrigue Infantino announced today that he has the support of the "majority of the African voters". If that is true then it is likely that he will be the winner. If that is just pre-election influencing of the electorate, then it may come down to CONCACAF and Oceania.

I believe, and I will make this prediction, that the rest of the European countries will vote for Infantino. And if CONCACAF and Oceania vote for Prince Ali, I also believe that the majority of them will not be able to bring themselves to vote for Sheikh Salman.

I am confident of an Infantino win. As I have said many times before he does not necessarily represent a new Fifa. But if these are the candidates presented, and they all have connections with the old Fifa, then I believe he is the best man.