The route to the final

Day -704. WorldCup2018

I heard this said about past World Cups, I heard it about Euro 2016 and it will be said again in two years. It is one of my most unliked football cliches quoted by journalist/supporter/player/manager: "It doesn't when you face the big teams. If you want to win the whole thing you're going to have to beat them at some point anyway."

I disagree, always have and today I finally felt the need to make my argument. Portugal won the Euros today, simply because they scored one goal and France scored none. In not so simple terms there could be, and will be, endless discussions and analysis about Portugal's defensive cohesiveness and France's deployment of the wrong system to combat Portugal's style. But in the end, in the final, Portugal won because they scored and France didn't. Bear with me.

The expert opinion was that Portugal got lucky with the draw. While France, Germany, Spain and Italy were busy knocking each other out, Portugal only had to beat Croatia, Poland and Wales. If Iceland hadn't scored their 94th minute winner against Austria in the group phase then Portugal would have played England in the last 16. A win there would have seen them play France and Germany/Italy to get to the final.

I'm sure everybody in the bars in Lisbon would have been thinking, "Hmm, England, France, Germany and then the final. Well we have to beat them at some point anyway if we want to win this thing." But when in fact the draw gave them Croatia, Poland and Wales I'm sure those same people in Lisbon thought, "we are so lucky that Iceland scored that 94th minute. This is way better than England, France and Germany." Because the final is unlike any other match.

My theory is that if Portugal had been on the other side of the draw they would not have won the whole thing. They were not good enough to beat France and Germany. But when you get to a final it's different. Now you're in it to win the whole thing. You're in the final. You've come this far and do not want to lose.

I do not believe for one second that any Portuguese player thought it doesn't matter who we play next. Any smaller, underdog team will hope they can avoid the big teams, get to the final and then see what happens. Portugal got to the final because they didn't have to play France (sooner) and Germany. And then in the final they played their hearts out, stopped France from scoring and scored one goal.

They won the whole thing without, "beating all the strong teams at some point anyway."