Israel 2026 or Australia 2026?

Day -606 WorldCup2018

Whoever derides the value of social media doesn't appreciate trying to have a decent football argument with friends on Facebook. I used to be able to to disagree with with these same friends face to face until distance made it impossible.Today's thought was inspired by one such exchange.

Fifa announced a few days ago that no European country can bid for the 2026 World Cup because of it's rotational policy. Following Russia in 2018 and Qatar in 2022, it sets up nicely for a North American bid for 2026. There have been rumours of the USA, Canada and Mexico submitting a joint bid. If not together, it does bode well for one of those countries' chances of hosting in 2026.

That was the subject of my conversation today and I added, "Unless Australia can put together a very strong bid". Australia, why not? They love their football over there and it would sort of be a recognition by Fifa of Australia's enthusiasm despite their isolation. Don't we all still think of Australia as being on the "other side of the world?"

And right after I hit "post" the realisation of my error hit me. Australia, for footballing reasons, is in Asia. Australia is part of the Asian Football Confederation and has been since 2006, when they left Oceania for stronger competition and a more straightforward route to qualifying for the World Cup. Now does Fifa go with geography or continental membership? Or could Fifa adhere to their statement that Europe will be on standby if "none of the received bids fulfil the strict technical and financial requirements," and also apply it to Australia?

It brought up thoughts of another country that Fifa have conveniently "moved" from one continent to another: Israel. The political situation in the Middle East, and the refusal of most Arab countries to play against Israel, forced Fifa to call Israel European after they were accepted as a UEFA member in 1994.

There is a bit of irony here. In the 1986 and 1990 World Cup qualifying rounds, Israel were part of Oceania and in 1990 pipped Australia to the top spot, thus qualifying for the intercontinental play-off (which they lost against Colombia). And, as a further aside, Chinese Taipei were also part of Oceania in 1986 and 1990. Oceania was a good place to send otherwise un-loved football countries.

Now, go along with me here. Israel and Australia bid to become the host nation of World Cup 2026. Fifa rejects them both at first, until they assess the other bids, because they are in Europe and Asia. Putting aside the incredible political and security issues associated with a World Cup in the country, Israel argue that they are an Asian country and shouldn't be barred from bidding because, through no fault of their own, they were forced out. After preparing this argument somebody writing a daily World Cup countdown blog points out to the Israeli FA that they cannot win that fight as Asian countries are also excluded from bidding.

The process is then started to have Israel re-join Oceania, citing increased hostility from European countries, angry that with the increasing number of new states (Gibraltar, Kosovo) UEFA is too crowded.

Concurrently, Australia make a similar plea to Fifa to be recognised by their geographical location. Seeing as Fifa have less political minefields when dealing with Australia, they accept this point of view. Australia can submit a bid. Israel are outraged by Fifa's inconsistency, but do not express this anger when the same World Cup countdown blogger reminds them that it is better to keep quiet. If Fifa do get tired of the Israeli FA's insistence on being recognised as Asian, and give in, then they won't be able to bid.

So Israel return to Oceania and are allowed to bid as a country from that region, happily not opposing Fifa's policy in regards to Australia that they can bid according to their location. The Oceania Football Confederation is happy to be in the spotlight and decides to not choose a preferred bidder amongst the two.

Israel, Australia, the USA, Canada and Mexico (in some combination) will then be the candidates to host World Cup 2026. In reality, it really will be North America's to lose, "unless a South American country can put together a very strong bid."