Africa

Day -578. WorldCup2018

African qualifying is where all the action's at. That's where I need to turn for the excitement that's lacking in Europe.

The European groups will have some titanic, tense battles and there will be surprises in the end. But my prediction is that they won't be Euro 2016 type surprises. The shock for many part-time football fans, but expected for other supporters, will be that teams like Wales, Iceland or Austria won't be in Russia.

There are 10 teams in South America and 4 qualify, and most likely a 5th through the intercontinental playoff. That's 50% of the continent's teams that qualify. The only excitement will be Argentina's late rush into the 4th spot and who won't make it.

In Asia the normal big guns will be there at the end: Australia, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia and then a new, or returning, outsider. Uzbekistan feel like they are due some better luck and Iran are right in the mix.

Oceania qualifying should be the normal stroll for New Zealand towards the right to play for a spot in Russia against whichever South American team gets bumped down into 5th place by Argentina's win on the last day.

In CONCACAF the US and Mexico will qualify. Yes, they will. The only questions is who will be the third team this time round. Costa Rica, again? Could they even improve on their incredible performances in Brazil? And a fourth team may even make it via the playoff against the 5th Asian team.

But in Africa there are so many questions. There is the group of death: Nigeria, Algeria, Cameroon and Zambia. And so many intriguing battles in the other groups. There's Tunisia and Democratic Republic of Congo in one, two teams who haven't been to the finals in a while. And there's the emergence of teams newer to being genuine contenders. Uganda are challenging Egypt and Ghana. Egypt beat Ghana today, and it's not looking good for the Black Stars. Burkina Faso are suddenly looking like a good bet to be in with a good shot at winning the group that also has South Africa and Senegal in it. Ivory Coast look like the only safe bet to win their group.

Only the 5 group winners make it to Russia. It's going to be a fun ride. And in Europe, the Germans will probably have booked their spot in Russia 2018 halfway through qualifying and will sit back and pretend to be interested in not losing to Northern Ireland in Belfast. And they will still win.