Everybody wants change, except for the Europeans. Everybody sees the necessity for change for their own gain, except for the Europeans who don't want change unless they can gain something from it.
The talk of expanding the World Cup to 48 teams was in the news again today as Fifa president Gianni Infantino reiterated his belief that this is the way forward for the World Cup. And again he said that his idea has the backing of most of the national federations.
The main opponents are the Europeans where most of the players who would participate in a World Cup play. The club owners, the big ones who belong to the European Clubs Association, are worried about their players having to play more.
In the end UEFA will probably go ahead and reluctantly accept the change. All the other continental confederations see it as a good move, ensuring more countries will qualify from their region. UEFA will most likely vote for the new format and then immediately demand they get more spots. Most of the World Cup finalists come from Europe already and, rather than see this as an opportunity for the World Cup to become truly a tournament for the whole world, the Europeans will selfishly look to make this a bigger showcase for their countries.
It would be naive to not recognise that the main driving force behind this change is money, and specifically more revenue for Fifa. With more matches on TV and more sponsorship money, research conducted by Fifa itself suggests that a 48 team tournament would result in an increase of $640million in profits. But, predictably, at the same time Fifa insists that a decision on the new format should have purposes beyond money.
"It should not be a financial decision," the Fifa report said. "Instead, the goal of expanding the FIFA World Cup is to further advance the vision to promote the game of football, protect its integrity and bring the game to all."
As typically cynical of a response a quote like that would normally generate from football fans, mostly European ones, there is a sound argument for an expansion. Football is stronger all over the world now, the gaps in quality are not so big anymore and there are a lot of talented teams that get excluded every four years, primarily because the Europeans get the highest percentage of spots.
The biggest issue may be the financial difficulties of a host nation to run a 48 team tournament. Brazil had many documented issues with construction costs for the last World Cup. Unless Fifa offer more assistance it will be very hard for one country to support so many matches, in more stadiums, with more public transport and hotels in places where they don't exist. The first expanded tournament would be in 2026. The favourites to host are a joint bid between Mexico, Canada and the US. That would make it easier, but how will 48 teams in one country work?
If Fifa can justifiably reason out the added expenses then I say bring it on.
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