Day -442 WorldCup2018
This is a disclaimer and a confession.
(And it also answers the question: how have Brazil qualified for Russia already?)
Yesterday I was hoping to share the news that Brazil had become first team to qualify for Russia 2018. They beat Paraguay and needed other results to go a certain way for qualification to be official.
At the time I wrote Peru and Uruguay were level at 1-1. In the last minute Peru scored and this changed everything. Brazil had now officially qualified. As I am not yet a full-time live reporter I posted my post with what information I had at the time, mindful of an early start this morning.
In the days leading up to yesterday's matches I had read a variety of reports that said Brazil would qualify if they won and Argentina lost and Chile didn't win; or if Argentina and Ecuador lost. I looked at the standings and didn't get into the mathematics of it but relied on what I read. Argentina lost, and it then transpired that Uruguay losing was also a factor.
Today I looked at the standings again and thought I have to figure this out myself without relying on other people working it out for me. At first it made no sense, and I thought could the BBC, ESPN, all the English newspapers be wrong?
The top 4 teams in South America qualify. The fifth placed team play the winners of the Oceania qualifying for a place in Russia. Brazil are 11 points ahead of Argentina with four matches left to play, which means a maximum of 12 points are available to be won. So if Argentina won all their matches and Brazil lost all of theirs and teams above Argentina won more points than Brazil, then Brazil would move down to fifth. So I had to look at the fixtures. In the next round in June, Uruguay play Argentina. Uruguay have 23 points. If they draw then Argentina will have 23 points and only be able to get to a maximum of 32 points from the remaining 3 matches, one point behind Brazil. If Uruguay win then Argentina can only get to 31 points. If Argentina win then Uruguay can only get to 32 points.
So, voila, there you have it, in case you were confused: Brazil join Russia on the "list of qualifiers so far." As the question was bugging me so much and because I thought I could get around looking into it myself I went to the trusty Google thingamabob and entered: how have Brazil qualified for Russia already? There were no answers but maybe now if somebody else did the same thing my answer will come up. And I will have helped somebody with something.
In other late news from last night, nothing happened in the last two minutes between Panama and the USA. It finished 1-1.
In more late, or early morning, news, Papua New Guniea won 2-1 in Tahiti. This has made the race to meet New Zealand in the play-off round very interesting. Tahiti have now played all their group matches and have six points. PNG and the Solomon Islands will play each other, home and away, in June. If they win one each all three teams will have 6 points. Goal difference and possibly goals scored will come into play. Tahiti have a 4 goal difference advantage over PNG and 5 over the Solomon Islands. So, my quick calculations show that if PNG and the Solomon Islands each get big wins over each other and cancel out each others' goal difference, they will both be behind Tahiti's goal difference. I may have to look at this again but it looks like one of PNG or the Solomon Islands will have to get at least a win and a draw.
If you're still with me you can thank me when you are watching New Zealand at the World Cup and you can turn to your friends and tell them that they made it after beating Argentina in the Intercontinental play-off, and after beating PNG in the Oceania qualifier who had made it that far after winning their penultimate group match against the Solomon Islands and then getting a last minute equaliser in their last match to top the group ahead of Tahiti by one point. Your friends may turn to you and say, "we really don't care and do they really play football in Tahiti? We just wondered how big of a hiding New Zealand are going to get." And you can say to them, "well, don't laugh at them, they were the only unbeaten team in 2010, the last World Cup they qualified for." Your friends may then ask you to go out to buy some beer "Damn know-it-all with all that useful information," mumbled as you walk out the door.
This is a disclaimer and a confession.
(And it also answers the question: how have Brazil qualified for Russia already?)
Yesterday I was hoping to share the news that Brazil had become first team to qualify for Russia 2018. They beat Paraguay and needed other results to go a certain way for qualification to be official.
At the time I wrote Peru and Uruguay were level at 1-1. In the last minute Peru scored and this changed everything. Brazil had now officially qualified. As I am not yet a full-time live reporter I posted my post with what information I had at the time, mindful of an early start this morning.
In the days leading up to yesterday's matches I had read a variety of reports that said Brazil would qualify if they won and Argentina lost and Chile didn't win; or if Argentina and Ecuador lost. I looked at the standings and didn't get into the mathematics of it but relied on what I read. Argentina lost, and it then transpired that Uruguay losing was also a factor.
Today I looked at the standings again and thought I have to figure this out myself without relying on other people working it out for me. At first it made no sense, and I thought could the BBC, ESPN, all the English newspapers be wrong?
The top 4 teams in South America qualify. The fifth placed team play the winners of the Oceania qualifying for a place in Russia. Brazil are 11 points ahead of Argentina with four matches left to play, which means a maximum of 12 points are available to be won. So if Argentina won all their matches and Brazil lost all of theirs and teams above Argentina won more points than Brazil, then Brazil would move down to fifth. So I had to look at the fixtures. In the next round in June, Uruguay play Argentina. Uruguay have 23 points. If they draw then Argentina will have 23 points and only be able to get to a maximum of 32 points from the remaining 3 matches, one point behind Brazil. If Uruguay win then Argentina can only get to 31 points. If Argentina win then Uruguay can only get to 32 points.
So, voila, there you have it, in case you were confused: Brazil join Russia on the "list of qualifiers so far." As the question was bugging me so much and because I thought I could get around looking into it myself I went to the trusty Google thingamabob and entered: how have Brazil qualified for Russia already? There were no answers but maybe now if somebody else did the same thing my answer will come up. And I will have helped somebody with something.
In other late news from last night, nothing happened in the last two minutes between Panama and the USA. It finished 1-1.
In more late, or early morning, news, Papua New Guniea won 2-1 in Tahiti. This has made the race to meet New Zealand in the play-off round very interesting. Tahiti have now played all their group matches and have six points. PNG and the Solomon Islands will play each other, home and away, in June. If they win one each all three teams will have 6 points. Goal difference and possibly goals scored will come into play. Tahiti have a 4 goal difference advantage over PNG and 5 over the Solomon Islands. So, my quick calculations show that if PNG and the Solomon Islands each get big wins over each other and cancel out each others' goal difference, they will both be behind Tahiti's goal difference. I may have to look at this again but it looks like one of PNG or the Solomon Islands will have to get at least a win and a draw.
If you're still with me you can thank me when you are watching New Zealand at the World Cup and you can turn to your friends and tell them that they made it after beating Argentina in the Intercontinental play-off, and after beating PNG in the Oceania qualifier who had made it that far after winning their penultimate group match against the Solomon Islands and then getting a last minute equaliser in their last match to top the group ahead of Tahiti by one point. Your friends may turn to you and say, "we really don't care and do they really play football in Tahiti? We just wondered how big of a hiding New Zealand are going to get." And you can say to them, "well, don't laugh at them, they were the only unbeaten team in 2010, the last World Cup they qualified for." Your friends may then ask you to go out to buy some beer "Damn know-it-all with all that useful information," mumbled as you walk out the door.
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