Tuesday, 7 March 2017

Uzbekistan

Day -464 WorldCup2018

Could this be the day that Mr. Arsenal for the past 20 years and a bit, Arsene Wenger, finally realises that his time is up. Another 5-1 defeat to Bayern Munich, for a 10-2 aggregate score, another round of 16 exit from the Champions League and another season with only the FA Cup to look forward to. The fans have had enough and I hope Wenger accepts that he can do no more. Leave now and avoid the embarrassment of a sacking at the end of what could become an even worse season.

That deserved a mention, to remember Arsenal's low in March of 2017 ad to compare to where Arsenal will be at the end of next season, at the start of the 2018 World Cup.

What I was really thinking about today was Syria vs. Uzbekistan on March 23rd. The World Cup qualifier may not be the most glamorous of the Asian qualifiers but it has an element of fascination. Syria still don't play their home matches at home and are playing in Malaysia again. This could be Syria's last chance to keep their unlikely World Cup dream alive. They are 4th in their group, 4 points behind Uzbekistan. The two third place teams in each group will play-off against each other, with the winner moving on to the Intercontinental play-off.

The match between these two teams brings up a few comparisons between the two countries, and an opportunity to do some research into Uzbekistan. Football, as always, is my teacher.
After the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, Uzbekistan was one of those Soviet states where a high ranking Communist Party stalwart from the Soviet era took over as President of the country. Islam Karimov was President until his death last September. Independence did not bring much freedom or prosperity to the majority of Uzbekis. Amnesty International has reported widespread use of torture of any opponents of the regime. Journalists are regularly jailed for voicing any opinions that challenge the government. Karimov made freedom of expression a crime.

The new President, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, vowed to carry on running the country just like Karimov did. The justifications from the ruling party for the method of governance is to suppress any moves by Islamist opposition groups to seize control and create an Islamic state. But because of the repression of any opposition, recruitment by radical Islamist groups amongst a young population (half of Uzbekistan's 30 million are under 25) has become very common. According to a report quoted in the Washington Post last September, Uzbekistan has experienced more terrorist attacks than any other country in Central Asia and more jihadists have joined foreign conflicts than from other Central Asian countries. Many of them have gone to Syria.

Reading about Uzbekistan it has many eerie similarities to Syria and its' regime. An uprising of any sorts would also lead to instability not just in Uzbekistan but also in the region. Uzbekistan is the largest country, by population, in Central Asia. It has oil and gas pipelines that run to China and Russia and is the main source of electricity for many neighbouring countries, while also being a key transit route for all the Central Asian countries and Afghanistan.

For reasons why the rest of the world did not intervene in Syria, or ever oppose the brutality of President Assad, so the rest of the world seems to turn a blind eye to the suffering of many in Uzbekistan. Better to have repressed stability than a whole new issue of instability to deal with.
And while we consider and debate the similarities between the two countries, Syria and Uzbekistan will play a football match which many in their own country will not care about it but see it only as furthering government propaganda. While the thought of the war ravaged country or the new kids on the block making it to Russia may seem like an accomplishment to the romantic, this romantic would rather neither of them make it and thus get not further opportunity to give their regimes a bigger stage.

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