It hit me today that when I did my qualifying update last week I did not mention Africa. It was probably because there was so much to say that I was leaving it for the end but then I go distracted by my own jokes and digs at Messi and David Ginola. Africa, I'm sorry.
The five group winners from the final round of qualifying make it to Russia. It feels like the most competitive of all the confederations, the polar opposite to Oceania. With two matches left to go these are the teams that are not or probably not going to be in Russia:
Cameroon: always a fan favourite
Algeria: my "other team", calling on my small Algerian ancestry. And they were such a wonderful team to watch in 2014.
South Africa: you always think they are going to be good even though they were pretty bad at their own World Cup in 2010.
Ghana; they still have an outside chance but it's not looking good. They are 4 points behind leaders Egypt. Ghana play second placed Uganda in their penultimate match and Egypt in the last match. In the 2014 qualifying Ghana beat Egypt 5-1 in the first leg of their play-off so there is precedent. However, Egypt play bottom placed Congo before Ghana. A win for Egypt and it could all be over, or come down to goal difference. Ghana have been one of the more consistent and stronger African teams in recent years. They were a Luis Suarez hand away from being the first African World Cup semi-finalist on 2010. On the other hand, Egypt have been the most under-performing African teams for a while so maybe their time to shine has come.
Libya: huh? I don't know. I just thought it would be pretty cool if they made it, but they won't and can't.
The five teams most likely to qualify:
Tunisia
Nigeria, but they play second placed Zambia in their penultimate match who are three points back. What a match that will be and what a story if Zambia were to qualify for the first time. After their very exciting team was wiped out in the tragic plane crash of 1993 the country is still waiting for the ultimate memorial to those players.
Ivory Coast, Morocco, Gabon are separated by two points. Too close.
Burkino Faso and Cape Verde Islands are level on points withe Senegal are one point back. But Senegal have "played" a match less. Their loss against South Africa was declared null by Fifa after the referee of that match was found to have awarded a penalty to South Africa for an nonexistent handball and has been banned for life. The match will be replayed in November after all the other matches are complete so it could be meaningless or hugely decisive.
Egypt, probably.
Does that answer the question as to who will qualify? Obviously not. That's how competitive it is.
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